1/29/18: Mark's "Market Talk" Blog

For the second week in a row corn and beans both ended the week higher. March corn was 4 cents higher with several things helping to move it. The dollar continues to slid lower and that makes US corn the cheapest in the world right now.

Uncertain weather in South America is helping. Wet weather in parts of Brazil is slowing the early bean harvest which in turn will slow their second crop corn planting. Areas in Argentina remain dry which is slowing the corn development there which is raising the possibility of some shorter yields.

Ethanol production in the US has returned to full speed as the weather has moderated so those plants are seeking corn. On the flip side we are seeing some bigger movement in the country as farmers core bins and start parting with some corn as we see prices advance. The question right now would be is there 10 cents or 30 cents left in this mini rally. A 10 cent move seems to buy a lot of corn so it will take bigger news to get 30 cents right now.

Exports are starting to increase but we have a ways to go to get back on track with where we should be right now. Anyone needing money before spring should be looking to sell some corn before the basis widens out if the board continues higher.

March beans ended last week 8 cents higher, however that includes a 7 cent drop Friday as wetter weather might be in the cards in SA. It could be we have put in a near term high. A lot of beans changed hands this past week as farmers continue to sell beans before corn. Terminal basis levels have retreated some as they don’t have to work hard to get their needed supplies.

The carry into summer isn’t real exciting right now either. This will get better once the commercials have control of the supply which should happen by late spring.

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