4/23/18: Mark's "Market Talk" Blog

By the time you read this corn planters will be rolling in our area. The weather the past 3 weeks has been frustrating for the entire mid west as below normal temperatures and light persistent moisture has keep the planters in the shed. Ground temps are finally rising and we are looking at a somewhat warmer week of weather.

So while it is good to get rolling the downside is the corn traders have gone from a late spring, delayed planting mentality to thinking now the corn will get planted and if the weather stays good maybe some extra corn will get planted. Corn lost about 9 cents last week as the focus shifted to planting mode. Granted the northern areas still have snow on the ground and they haven’t turned a wheel. But the dirt up there recovers a lot faster than southern Iowa dirt and even though they are behind today they almost always catch up.

If the current forecast holds and we see 2 or 3 weeks of favorable weather the corn market may have a tough go near term. The underlying support is still positive and long term there appears to be some marketing opportunities ahead especially if the weather turns hot and dry in June as some are predicting. Meanwhile keep an eye on nearby basis levels as they should narrow up while the planters are running.

Beans gave 25 cents back last week as the bloom has wore off of the meal market. We crushed a record amount of beans in March, the most that the US had ever crushed in a month, but the export market faded before the meal was all shipped. Now the attention turns to the planting season. If you plan to be strong bean acres this year you are rooting for an easy corn planting season so none of those acres switch.

Today it looks like the switch may come from spring wheat as they are way behind seeding it and as it gets later beans may become a better option. That could add 500,000 acres or more of bean acres which are already large to start with. Old crop beans may see better pricing post planting as the farmer is almost sold out so basis levels will improve. New crop pricing opportunities will be tied to the summer weather from here on out.

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