6/11/18: Mark's "Market Talk" Blog

More trade worries, high crop ratings, sinking prices, and great growing weather.

For the second week in a row corn and beans were both down big time. July corn lost 14 cents last week as non threatening weather has a lot of acres looking great for this time of year. The funds have been long all spring and now with the crop off to a great start some of them are getting cold feet and have begun jumping ship. We haven’t gotten any help from the President in the trade discussions as he is holding firm in his believe we need to see some relief from the trade deficits we have with several countries. This week it was Mexico and Canada fighting back and like China they are targeting agriculture. I still agree that this needs to happen and I still believe it will be resolved but we can’t afford to wait a long time. With world stocks at high levels these countries can play this game and no one will go hungry. I think at the first true mention of crop problems we will see quicker actions. Soybeans suffered worse than corn as July beans lost 52 cents last week while Nov beans lost 48. Again the excellent crop ratings plus the fear of additional acres played heavy on the trade last week. Just like corn the trade was long beans and now some have had enough and are wanting out. Good selling opportunities are hard to find right now. On the corn side it appears you will need to hold off as we approach pollination and see if the weather will throw some curve balls. This crop is growing so fast and using so much water an extended dry spell could have a large affect on it. Green snap is a big concern right now as a strong wind could really cause a lot of problems. I think if you’ve held some old crop corn this long you just as well own it thru pollination. We are a long ways from losing a bean crop so it takes a heartier gambler to wait the bean market out. One of the differences today is we have a shrinking world corn inventory while the supply of beans appears headed to record high levels. Like most years a lot can and will happen between now and harvest. Hopefully we will find a chance here and there to make a little money.   

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