6/25/18: Mark's "Market Talk" Blog

Crop friendly weather continues while trade talks go backwards.

The past week’s weather was almost picture perfect for a large area of the corn belt. The areas of dry soil appears to be shrinking and though some in central Iowa want to turn the facet off, the board knows that rain makes grain. The forecast for the coming week includes some more heat but at this time it looks like it won’t be enough to hurt the crop. Pollination will begin later this week in some areas as we are a week to 10 days ahead of schedule right now. That means our window of a mid summer weather threat to the corn crop is diminishing. Earlier talk of a possible below trend line yield has turned to talk of a possible record corn yield. Suddenly the possibility of 4.00 corn has become talk of 3.00 corn. This past week local old crop corn was 3 cents higher as basis improved while the board lost a penny or two. Beans continued their run for the bottom as July beans lost another 11 cents. They are now trading at prices we haven’t seen in years. Locally we were 1.32 lower on beans last Friday compared to the first of March. As the trade dispute turns toward a trade war the chance of a recovery looks somewhat bleak. Yield prospects look really good right now so at this point there isn’t much good news in any of this. Perhaps the only good thing is that the funds are now short both corn and beans. This is very important as should we encounter some rough weather or the trade problems get settled we will need these funds to be hungry to get back into the market.

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