Mark's Market Talk for April 29, 2024

April is wrapping up and planting in our trade area has moved right along. Everyone has welcomed some rain and now we just need another window to finish up the planting. Other parts of the corn belt have seen varying degrees of planting progress. The progress will be stated in Monday’s progress report. We are starting to see a little attention given to weather, but for now that mostly concerns Brazil’s second crop corn. They are in the middle of pollination and the weather has been hot and dry. It has already lowered their projected yield which should lead to more exports from the US into countries needing to source corn. Mexico continues to be a large buyer as they struggle with a reduced supply from a short 23 crop, and the extreme dry conditions they are facing as they plant the 24 crop. The severe drought areas in our country have lessened some but not all of us are out of the woods yet. Last year we produced a near record crop, but we started out with a tank of water and received timely rains all summer. Plus, we did not have lots of high temps like we do sometimes. Political unrest in many parts of the world is having almost a daily effect on our prices. The funds are still extremely short both the corn and bean markets. They have supported their positions very well to now. However, they know they are in a dangerous place at the start of the growing season as one hiccup could start a sudden rally that could cost them some money if they need to exit their positions in a hurry. Of course, this would be good for producers as it would help push the markets higher. The problem lies with those still holding old crop grain, which there is a lot of still unpriced. If planting is completed timely and the weather cooperates the funds will win, and they will be able to buy the futures back at a lower price which in turn lowers the market prices. If I was giving advice, it would be to get the old crop marketed, maybe holding some gambling stocks if you want. If the market trends lower, you will be glad you did. If we get a shot in the arm and we shoot higher, sell new crop bushels to average things out. Basis levels are still strong as grain movement has been slow. That will change once the trucks start heading to town. Last thing, we were higher last week as July corn was 7 cents higher, and beans gained 12 cents.