Mark's Market Talk for July 21, 2025

What a difference a week can make. 2 weeks ago, we were struggling to right the ship as the markets kept wanting to go south. This past week we made some forward progress as the weather forecast started calling for a hot and dry stretch headed our way. December corn ended the week 15 cents higher, and we got half of that on Friday. Beans also had a good week as they gained 28 cents. The question is will this forecast come true, and will it harm the crop. The answers today would be maybe and maybe. Most of the corn in our area has pollinated and appears to be in good condition. There are areas not as far along as us and the corn there could still be damaged by hot and dry weather. This might not be the magic we need to reverse the corn price, but it could be a start. For those old enough to remember 1983 we had a fantastic corn crop on July 15^th. A month later after several 100-degree windy, dry days we had a terrible crop. Today’s hybrids can stand more stress, but there is a limit to that ability. The next 3 weeks will tell the tale on our corn crop. The story is a little different for the bean crop. It seems everyone has bragged all season how good their corn is. These same people are also saying they are disappointed in their beans. The wet weather that has been good for corn has held the beans back in a lot of areas. Our area is not alone in this observation; we have been hearing this throughout the Midwest. The USDA is currently projecting a 52.5 yield. If weather was to reduce this a couple of bushels we are suddenly in a much tighter carryout. It is too early to project this with any certainty, but it is a possibility. Marketing a crop is just as difficult as raising it. There are so many variables to consider and sometimes the more information you have the more confused you can get. If this rally continues this week, it might be an opportunity to price some grain. It is easier to sell on the way up versus selling on the way down.