Mark's Market Talk for November 13, 2023

Just when it appeared the corn market may have hit bottom and was on the verge of recovery, the November WASDE report dashed our hopes. Last Thursday’s report was supposed to be a sleeper. We should know by now that the USDA likes to release reports that cause reactions. This one did just that. The trade was expecting a slight corn yield adjustment higher. The report jumped the yield to 174.9 versus the expected 173.2. This 1.7-bushel jump was way more than was expected and that caught the headlines. What did not get much attention was the usage adjustments they made that tempered most of the yield increase and that kept the carryout only 25 million bushels more than expected. Corn immediately headed south, and the lower trend continued Friday. At the end of the week corn was down 13 cents. There was another announced sale to Mexico, but we still have not seen the Chinese buying corn, which they are expected to. Elevators in southern Iowa are either filling up or are full. The corn harvest in most of this area has been a lot more than anyone thought. Now those with corn to harvest are looking for a home for it. The USDA also raised the bean yield just a bit at .3 bushels an acre. This keeps the carryout at a very low level and any major hiccup in South America could push our prices higher, perhaps a lot higher. We get asked if the farmers are storing more crop than normal, and it appears they are. Of course, they have more to handle this fall so some are being advised to store some bushels so they can cash in when the tide changes. Bean exports are running behind projections, but we are starting to see some large purchases from China. South America had a large crop and that meant they had more to sell in the world market. Now the focus should come to the US as we have most of the available stocks in the world. Some are trading the South American weather as they have everything from bone dry to super wet going on. It may be a little early to say they will have short crops, we just proved we could raise a good crop on very little water. They have the same genetics that we have so they may surprise the world with their production.