Mark's Market Talk for September 16, 2024

We survived the September crop report last week without a lot of trouble. They raised the corn yield by half a bushel to 183.6 while they recognized more exports which lowered the ending stocks 16 million bushels. It was described as a slightly friendly report and corn ended the week 7 cents higher. They left the bean yield at 53.2 and added some usage which lowered the carryout 10 million bushels to 550, which is still a bearish number. For the week beans were a penny lower. Now that harvest has started, we will begin to hear some actual yields. However, it seems the ones with big yields scream loader than those with disappointing yields, so the trade takes it to mean we might overrun the estimates. The funds bought back in last week and they are now short about 130,000 corn and bean contracts each. This has helped the corn market the past couple of weeks and unless we catch a major spark somewhere, we have used up some of our hope as they have reduced their short positions by 2/3rds. Exports have slowed as we are not the cheapest corn in the world like we had been. China bought a small amount of corn last week, but it looks like they plan to limp through until South America has more corn available next winter. While the corn yield could grow as harvest progresses, the bigger interest is how the beans will do. The late season weather was not bean friendly everywhere. The Pro Farmer tour counts pods, and they compare those counts with previous years to calculate their yield projections. But it takes rain to fill all those pods and not everyone received enough August rain to do this. Therefore, the bean yield may back off a touch. It will take more than a touch with a 550-million-bushel carryout to make a big difference. However, every bit will help.